The Report, don’t get defensive about Frisco edition
Claude Coupee
Lead Correspondent
Now that we have dispatched the not-ready-for-prime Detroit Lions (although not without a tip of the cap to Lions QB Matthew Stafford and to Megatron), we turn to the next order of business, a multi-purpose business trip to San Francisco, or, as we shall refer to it, Frisco, because they hate that. Among this weekend’s to-do’s:
- survive and advance to the NFCCG;
- win our first road playoff game ever;
- exact a bit of revenge for the suffering of our ancestors in the 80s and early 90s, when we are certain that there’s no way the 49ers ever rounded the corner on any salary cap or free agency issues, because former 49ers owner Eddie DeBartolo is just not that kind of guy; and
- most importantly, shutting a lot of people the fuck up about how good the 49ers are, and how tough a matchup this is for the 2011 New Orleans Saints, because we are playing outside for fuck’s sake.
But first, we’re going to help you with a little bit of perspective about these 2011 49ers.
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From all the talk we’re already hearing about the 49ers’ defense, you’d think they were some combination of the 101st Airborne at Bastonge, the 1985 Bears, the descendants of B Company, 2nd Battalion, 24th (2nd Warwickshire) Regiment of Foot from the Battle of Rorke’s Drift, and this woman I dated a few years ago that we still refer to as “Dr. No.”
Gimme a break.
This 49ers defense is really pretty good, but before we go putting them up with all the great defenses in history, let’s go through our favorite stats that we like to use as indicators for just how good a defense this is.
Opponent’s passer rating: 73.6, good for 5th in the NFL. This is historically about right; 73.6 would have gotten you 3rd, 8th, 6th, 4th and 6th in the years from 2010 back to 2006, respectively.
Yards per game allowed: 308, 4th in the league. Again, not historical, in the five previous years that would have gotten you 5th, 7th, 10th, 10th and 12th. Some of this drift is explained by this year’s passing explosion.
Yards per carry allowed: 3.5, 1st in the league, would have been 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 3rd and 5th from 2010 to 2006.
Points per game allowed: 14.3, 2nd this year, would have been either first or second each of the last five years.
Yards per play allowed: this is all plays, and they are at 5.1 yards allowed per play, at which they are only ninth in the NFL this year.
First, a little perspective is provided by who these guys played. The average league rank of the 16 offenses they faced were essentially 19th in passer rating, yards per game and yards per carry, and 21st in points per game — nine of their 16 opponents were in the bottom 10 of the league in scoring. Much like the Saints “fourth-ranked” defense in 2011, this is a defense whose stats are a little inflated by who they played.
Second, they’re doing something to keep the number of plays per game low. Frisco ran only 993 plays, 24th in the league, but their defense only faced 974 plays, 26th this year and both under the league average of 1,017 plays. I have to assume that, a la the Jim Mora Sr. Saints, they are consciously running the clock down before the snap to shorten the game and lower the number of possessions per team. And given their plus-28 turnover differential, you’d certainly think they’d have had a lot more snaps on offense than defense.
Our theory: their offense truly is pedestrian, so most commentators, unwilling to say something like “this is really a 10-6 team with a big turnover differential that is getting its 13-3 magic year like the 2010 Falcons or the 2001 Bears”, have to gush about their top-five defense like these guys all run around with maces and broadaxes. Not the case.
It’s a little maddening, but while everybody is so up in arms about “what will the Saints do outside against this great defense”, nobody is asking about a Frisco defense that hasn’t faced any of 2011′s three transcendent offenses in Green Bay, New Orleans and New England, and saw only three top 10 offenses all year. Why shouldn’t they be the ones who are worried? The Saints are established as one of the league’s great offenses over the last half-dozen years, and these guys haven’t seen anything like this all season. Why aren’t they the ones with something to prove?
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Just a little more historical context, for what it’s worth: this 49ers defense isn’t hugely different from their defense in 2009, which was ninth in opponent passer rating at 76.2, a little worse in yards per game allowed at 326 per game (good for 16th), third in yards per carry allowed at 3.6, fourth in points per game at 17.6, and ninth in yards per play allowed at 5.0 (which is actually better than this year). They also had 33 takeaways compared to 38 this year.
The difference? For one thing, their schedule of opponents’ offenses in 2009 was a little harder, ranking average 16th in yards per game that year (19th this year), and 17th in points per game (21st this year — if you don’t think those three- or four-slot drops aren’t that big, you need to brush up on probability and statistics), as well as having only 10 giveaways this year as opposed to 24 in 2009.
We’ll admit that this is a different defense in 2009, a better one, with new players such as CB Carlos Rogers and the wonderful LB Navarro Bowman. But a lot of the same core guys like LBs Patrick Willis and Ahmad Brooks, DL Isaac Sopoaga and Justin Smith, and DBs Dashon Goldson and Tarell Brown. Yes, new DC Vic Fangio (a Saints assistant back in the day) has done a nice job. But these guys are what they are.
I mean, it’s really all about the turnovers, right? The 49ers had +28 in turnover differential, as good as any in the last 10 years, but a lot of that is on the fact that they’ve thrown the ball so little, and not dropped it, resulting in only 10 giveaways. The 49ers did lead the league in takeaways, but hardly on an unprecedented basis. When you look at takeaway leaders in the last 10 years, Frisco’s 38 takeaways was the second lowest total to lead the league since 2002. The Ravens led the league with 34 in 2008 and the Patriots also had 38 last year. In fact, 38 takeaways is the second-lowest total to lead the league in the last 20 years (I stopped looking back at 1991, honestly).
Scrappy, solid, determined….sure. Credit where it’s due? Absolutely. To be ignored and disdained? Hardly.
But are these guys the 2000 Ravens? Dominant? No.
And they’re dealing with a team that set a record for fewest fumbles lost this year and quarterback who has zero, none, nada, zippo INTs in 205 passes over his last five playoff games. If they don’t get more than their share of turnovers, and that’s not the way to bet, we’re moving the ball, we’re scoring, and we’re moving on.
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The Goat will have more on the game later this week. Until then,
GO SAINTS GO!